2013年10月24日 星期四

(2008-Oct12 Midas,WofOz )希臘神話米達斯王(投資銀行家與政客) 從綠野仙蹤起,就是一樣地貪婪炒房股泡沫, 闖禍後一樣由全民買單/點石成金最終要付出近摧毀性代價

前期:高盛傳奇躲掉網通與房產泡沫危機 (現在網通時代---很可能不必30年就有新輪迴...)

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JL(2008年10 月12日),-點石成金的米達斯王付出代價躺在地獄,下次重生復活前,是長線大部位投資人,開始仔細做功課,挑肥揀瘦 絕佳時機- 濟三十年大輪迴災難,三生有命碰到,危機是危難也是機會--(財 務工程與投資銀行家毀滅錄)
I.三十年經濟大輪迴:從綠野仙蹤以前起(1899),米達斯王-投資銀行家,就是每三十年一世代,製造一超級經濟災難,一樣地貪婪,一樣闖大禍 後,一樣由全民買單,一樣重新從廢墟中再起,存活的更壯大,這次也不例外.
許多人在小時候,都讀過--綠野仙蹤-(或譯桃樂絲歷險記,原名The Wonderful Wizard of Oz,1899 年完成,1900年出版),後來成紐約百老匯連續演出最長音樂劇之一,也拍了幾十部電影.這個童書原來是控訴美國東方巫婆亂搞 ----指美國東方(紐約)的銀行家資本家財團與政客(共和黨),把國家陷入龍捲風式的金融風暴與經濟大恐慌,讓善良的人民流離失所,找不到回家的路.The  Wizard of Oz
大家最後都期待在翡翠城(首都華盛頓,Emerald City - Washington, D.C.) 的巫師歐芝大法師(政治人物,總統, the Wizard of  Oz--重拍電影時寓喻1930年代民主黨羅斯福/金融海嘯後民主黨歐巴馬總統)幫忙找尋回家路,政治人物做法是不斷吹牛,作法印鈔票,其實真正解決之道,是在人們善良本性裏.
原書完成於1899年,美國經濟上上世紀大恐慌前後,可是到了約30年後,1929年起,美國又陷入另一個世紀經濟大恐慌,四分之一的人失業,大部 分銀行倒閉,在1939正在進行艱苦的二次大戰時,又拍出了至今大家熟悉的電影-- The  Wizard of Oz.The  Wizard of Oz電影

約30年後,1960~70,越戰與中東戰爭,石油禁運,能源危機, 財政赤字債台高築,惡性通膨如脫韁之馬,最後爆發金融危機與經濟大恐慌.
再約30年後,2000~2010間,阿富汗與伊 拉克戰爭,財政赤字又債台高築,能源危機,通膨惡化,又有網通泡沫與房地產泡沫爆破,引發金融危機與經濟大恐慌.

我們可觀察出,大約每30年超級米達斯大王就會作怪一次,引發大泡沫,隨後付出米達斯王代價,泡沫破了金融危機與經濟大恐慌, 隨 之而至.美國第一大投資銀行高盛,記載公司歷史, 公司一開始大約每隔30年就會碰到超級金融風暴,把30年賺的錢虧光,然後從新開始.為甚麼是每次大約隔30年, 就會有一次大泡沫與隨後而來的超級金融危機?   根據高盛智者的說法,因為30年大約是一個新世代,重新累積新財富,  這一個新世代的年輕新手,沒有上世代金融風暴的記憶,很容易被超級米達斯王的點石成金所誘惑.高盛傳奇躲掉網通與房產泡沫危機 (現在網通時代---很可能不必30年就有新輪迴...)
從這個童話故事,可知美國定期的金融風暴與經濟大恐慌是資本主義必要之惡,    米達斯王--投資銀行家與政客--或叫做東方巫婆,會定期作怪,把國家搞得天翻地覆,   每次要善後也都找政治人物The Wonderful Wizard of Oz(註30年代是民主黨的羅斯福/2008是民主黨歐巴馬),這次還要再花上兆美元.   每次也要新設下些條件,這次大家要限制貪婪的米達斯王---投銀CEO過份豐厚的報酬.
最後重複:米達斯王點石 成金,     最後終要付出近摧毀性的代價;米達斯王-投資銀行家與政客,從綠野仙蹤起(1899),就是一樣地貪婪,   闖禍後一樣由全民買 單,這次也不例外;只要央行不斷灑錢滋潤,達米斯王會在人類貪婪的呼喚下,不斷輪廻重生復活,      每當點石成金的米達斯王付出代價躺在地獄,無法作怪時,都是 長線投資人挑肥揀瘦布局時,這次也不例外.
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附1.(高盛-約50年前Floyd Odlum告誡當時接班人John Weinberg的警語-
人們每次新時代新題材泡沫來時都會忘記以前的破滅經驗,說服大家這次不同,
但 本質一樣,灑太多錢造成泡沫.

每次泡沫,都喊 出每一次泡沫高點必重複的一句話:這是新時代!這一次不一樣!
Goldman Sachs-Lisa Endlich p72.)





直 到1950s年一個轉機,當時高盛大頭要他兒子--接班人,去拜訪躲過前波泡沫泡破的長者,Floyd Odlum
Floyd Odlum
要接班人把教誨釘在牆上,一輩子每天凝視,像希臘神話攻落特洛伊的英雄奧迪西斯,當他返鄉,經女妖試煉,他知道無法抵擋誘惑, 他要水手綁緊他,使他們安然度過誘惑.

這個教誨大意就是:每隔幾年就會有過多流動性-灑錢太多,因而產生泡沫,要仔細因應泡沫,
沒 有人會告訴你是什麼樣的泡沫,也沒人會告訴你什麼時候發生.因為當時的人一定創造新名詞-新時代新紀元新經濟為泡沫找理由,也一定說---這次不一樣,但 最後泡沫一定會破滅.....
高盛接班人把這個猶太千年慘痛教訓祖訓傳下來,從此避開了每20~30年必輸光光從新再來的噩運.
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 II.希臘神話米達斯王點石成金(The Midas Touch) 故事的由來:

酒 神狄俄尼索斯(Dionysus)的師長和養 父Silenus(半人半羊)喝醉到處閒逛,農民發現將他帶國王米達斯面前。米達斯認出 他,並好好款待他十天十夜...第十一天,米達斯國王將Silenus帶回給酒神 ,酒神答應給他任何他想要的.作為回報,米達斯希望擁有點石成金的本領,酒神狄俄尼索斯答應。
米 達斯很高興擁有這項新本領,..他將一朵橡樹嫩芽以及一塊石頭變成黃金。回到家裡,樂不可支的他要僕人準備豐盛 宴席。然而他馬上發現桌上的麵包、肉和美酒都變成黃金而無法下嚥,
最後..他一碰他女兒-女兒也變成一尊黃金雕塑。他才領悟到 他的決定多荒謬。米達斯王點石成金的最後代價,失去最心愛的女兒與他自己寶貴生命(無法進食餓死...不過結局有各種不同版本,我採自毀版)
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III..米達斯王點石成金,最後終要付出近摧毀性的代價
這個希臘神話寓言故事,是告誡後代子孫:天下沒有不勞而獲的事,點石成金,最後 一定要付出近摧毀性的代價.這個點石成金的米達斯王也許是過度玩弄金錢遊戲的投資銀行,也許是過分迷戀金錢遊戲的企業經營者,也許是過分吹牛濫開空頭支 票,鼓舞金錢遊戲換取選票的政治人物,最後終要付出近摧毀性的代價
網通泡沫狂飆時,投資銀行-米達斯王--點網通成金,將沾到網通邊的公司送上 華爾街,點石成金股價狂飆.
美國房地產泡沫時,投資銀行--米達斯王--把爛房貸,包裝成次貸債送上華爾 街,點石成金,送到全世界,爛房貸與冒險王米達斯王連動的最危險債劵,成全世界保守退休老人依存的保本連動債.
在股市多頭時,迷戀金錢遊戲的企業經營者,玩起投資銀行的金錢遊戲,業績左挪 右灌,併入小股公司大灌業績,點石成金,股價無量跳空飛漲.
台股史上,玩點石成金遊戲最兇的,應是已成壁紙的太電,它買過美國銀行,香港 五星飯店,開辦與經營過DRAM(茂矽..)與投資銀行,經營台哥大,投資衛星電話,..光是這一小部分紀錄,就讓你眼花撩亂.
台灣也有政治人物學米達斯王與投資銀行,爛開選舉支票,吹選舉股泡泡,點石成 金,無視全球政經趨勢向下形勢.
網通泡沫,付出米達斯王的最後代價---泡沫崩跌,現在我們也正在付美國房產泡沫/政客泡沫/泡沫的米達斯王的最後代價.

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IV.只要央行不斷灑錢滋潤,達米斯王會在人類貪婪的呼喚下,不斷輪廻重生復活
美國前5大投資銀行,這波學財務工程(或叫衍生性商品)的人,在信評公司貪婪婪下(見下附4)..以次貸債包裝,捅出大破洞,全世界財富已因此蒸發 掉25兆美元以上,美國政 府花納稅人的錢幾千億美元,買了兩房與AIG,還要再發7千億美元.現在雷曼破產,貝爾斯登與美林被併購,高盛與摩根史丹利也被強迫轉型成銀行金控,只要 央行不斷灑錢滋潤,達米斯王會在人類貪婪的呼喚下,不斷輪廻重生復活.
故事裡,點石成金的米達斯王付出最後代價,但故事未因此而結束,因為人類貪婪慾望永不止息,政府不斷再灑錢印鈔票,米達斯王死了,央行還會不斷降息灑錢印 鈔票滋潤米達斯王的靈魂,不斷乘著人們 貪慾的翅膀...不斷再轉世重生.幾年內就會有米達斯王重生,大家淡忘了教訓後,再來一個超級米達斯王.
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V. 當點石成金的米達斯王躺在地獄無法作怪時,都是長線投資人挑肥揀瘦布局時,這次也不例外

1.巴菲特-譏諷投資銀行家(米達斯王)創造的金 融工具(金錢遊戲-點石成金)--有3個I循環:
第一I:首次創造出新一類金融商品的點石成金者叫創新者:the innovator;
接著是第二I:是立即跟進的模仿者the imitator;最後一個I:大量跟屁在後面的笨蛋白癡:the idiot.
新金融商品發行到爛 了還繼續發行,不論發行商,賣家或是買家都是笨蛋白癡-- the idiot--,

2. 包菲特一向對---玩金錢遊戲的米達斯王-投資 銀行--沒好感,但他在米達斯王下地獄的此刻重新入市,長線投資人要冷靜想,仔細做功課,未來幾個月可能是你十幾年來難得挑肥揀瘦時機...他對投資銀行 點石成金遊戲譏諷是3 Is循環.但在美國五大投資銀行,一家破產,兩家被併,殘存兩家被政府強制轉型後,他以極佳條件50億美元投進老大高盛,並準備好另外50億美元選擇權將 來可再買進.他親身實踐他不斷告誡投資人的名言:大家在貪婪(瘋狂追高)時你要恐懼,大家在恐懼(恐慌砍殺)時,你要貪婪. 3.李嘉誠港 股3萬點,港人直通車狂熱追高時,他 公開在記者會上諄諄勸導股民本益比太高,投資危險,且帶頭賣股,(相反李兆基羅傑斯號稱股神,還拼命叫進),巴菲特在李嘉誠警告前,也賣掉他4.8億買, 持有4年賣價40億,賺8倍以上的中石油,當現在港股跌剩約1/2,中股約1/3,台股約50%後,他重新來買比亞迪.(當李嘉誠巴菲特大賣時,羅傑斯鼓 吹大家大買)
這告訴我們股市腰斬,長線 固執投資人又重新開始入市挑肥撿瘦了.如果你的口袋夠深,也有挑肥揀瘦能力,不妨把巴菲特與李嘉誠的動做作為參考.僅重複我在部落格上已不斷重述的話:巴菲特與李嘉誠,也許買的稍早,也許賣的稍早, 但極少買錯或賣錯.
4.註:9/28-鉅亨-巴菲特繼巨額投資高盛再斥資2.31億美元, 入股比亞迪約10%股權。2002~3 年(約SARS時)巴菲特以每股1.6~1.7港元,共4.88億美元購入中國石油1.3%的股份,約為H股23.4億股。到2007年10月份,巴菲特 以12港元左右的價格賣出了持有4年的中國石油H股,獲得了大約8 倍的收益。巴菲特在年度《致股東的信》,解釋買賣過程和原因,他說當初以4.88億美元 購入時,“中石油的市值約為370億美元。去年下半年,中石油的市值漲到2750億美元,我們認為這個估值水準和 其他大型石油公司相當,所以將手中股以40億美元全部賣出。
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VI. 附
附2.綠野仙蹤的寓意
(見 The  Wizard of Oz.)...An interesting sidenote: the plot of The Wizard of Oz has often been used, rightly or wrongly, as a Parable on Populism in the Gilded Age, to explain the political situation at the time of its writing, including the 1896 Presidential election, and the turn-of-the-century Populist movement. Here are a few of the allegorical connections, most of which were originally recognized by Henry M. Littlefield, and published in the American Quarterly in 1967:
  • the Scarecrow - the wise, but naive western farmers
  • the Tin Woodman - the dehumanized, Eastern factory workers
  • the Wicked Witch of the East - the Eastern industrialists and bankers who controlled the people (the Munchkins)
  • the Good Witch of the North - New England, a stronghold of Populists
  • the Good Witch of the South - the South, another Populist area
  • the Wizard - President Grover Cleveland, or Republican Presidential candidate William McKinley
  • the Cowardly Lion - Democratic-Populist Presidential candidate William Jennings Bryan
  • Dorothy - a young Mary Lease; or the good-natured American people
  • Dorothy's silver shoes - represents the 'silver standard' (acc. to the Populists, "the free and unlimited coinage of silver")
  • Toto - the 'teetotaling' Prohibitionists (or Temperance Party), an important part of the 'silverite' coalition
  • the Yellow Brick road - the 'gold standard' - paved with gold, but leads nowhere
  • the land of Oz - oz. is the standard abbreviation for ounce, in accordance with the other symbolism
  • Emerald City - Washington, D.C., with a greenish color associated with greenbacks
  • the Poppy field - the threat of anti-imperialism
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附 3:英國遠在1825年就用政府資金,在金融風暴中注資銀行.
Every panic is marked by a sense that the financial system is close to complete collapse. Never were such feelings more marked than during the panic that started in London in December 1825..” William Huskisson, the president of the Board of Trade, told the House of Commons, he sincerely believed “that the effect would have been to put a stop to all dealing between man and man, except by way of barter.” Or, as a director of the Bank of England put it during the midst of the crisis: “We must ask not who is gone, but who stands?”
Yet even in 1825 the authorities belatedly succeeded in quelling the panic in that incident by borrowing money from France and distributing a stash of old banknotes found in the vaults of the Old Lady. In the 20th century, the end of the panic tended to coincide with decisive government intervention: Roosevelt’s bank holiday of March 1933, the launching of the Bank of England’s “lifeboat” in December 1974 and the nationalisation of Japan’s Long-Term Credit Bank in October 1998, which was accompanied by a $500bn capital injection into the stricken banking system.
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附 4..由The Big Picture--轉彭博社---探討這個世紀金融災難起源於--由於信評公司S&P's與Moody's為賺錢和市占率,配合投資銀行將包裹爛 貨在CDO中的破銅爛鐵,評為AAA黃金等級,就這樣幫投資銀行成為米達斯王,讓他們點石成金,最後終於摧毀自己與搞亂世界.
Huge special investigation in two parts from Bloomberg -- its a must read:
Frank Raiter says his former employer, Standard & Poor's, placed a "For Sale'' sign on its reputation on March 20, 2001. That day, a member of an S&P executive committee ordered him, the company's top mortgage official, to grade a real estate investment he'd never reviewed.

S&P was competing for fees on a $484 million deal called Pinstripe I CDO Ltd., Raiter says. Pinstripe was one of the new structured-finance products driving Wall Street's growth. It would buy mortgage securities that only an S&P competitor had analyzed; piggybacking on the rating violated company policy, according to internal e-mails reviewed by Bloomberg.

"I refused to go along with some of this stuff, and how they got around it, I don't know,'' says Raiter, 61, a former S&P managing director whose business unit rated 85 percent of all residential mortgage deals at the time. "They thought they had discovered a machine for making money that would spread the risks so far that nobody would ever get hurt.''

Relying on a competitor's analysis was one of a series of shortcuts that undermined credit grades issued by S&P and rival Moody's Corp., according to Raiter. Flawed AAA ratings on mortgage-backed securities that turned to junk now lie at the root of the world financial system's biggest crisis since the Great Depression, according to Raiter and more than 50 former ratings professionals, investment bankers, academics and consultants.

"I view the ratings agencies as one of the key culprits,'' says Joseph Stiglitz, 65, the Nobel laureate economist at Columbia University in New York. "They were the party that performed that alchemy that converted the securities from F- rated to A-rated. The banks could not have done what they did without the complicity of the ratings agencies.''

Gold Standard--Driven by competition for fees and market share, the New York-based companies stamped out top ratings on debt pools that included $3.2 trillion of loans to homebuyers with bad credit and undocumented incomes between 2002 and 2007. As subprime borrowers defaulted, the companies have downgraded more than three-quarters of the structured investment pools known as collateralized debt obligations issued in the last two years and rated AAA.

Without those AAA ratings, the gold standard for debt, banks, insurance companies and pension funds wouldn't have bought the products. Bank writedowns and losses on the investments totaling $523.3 billion led to the collapse or disappearance of Bear Stearns Cos., Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. and Merrill Lynch & Co. and compelled the Bush administration to propose buying $700 billion of bad debt from distressed financial institutions.

In August 2004, Moody's Corp. unveiled a new credit-rating model that Wall Street banks used to sow the seeds of their own demise. The formula allowed securities firms to sell more top-rated, subprime mortgage-backed bonds than ever before.A week later, Standard & Poor's moved to revise its own methods. An S&P executive urged colleagues to adjust rating requirements for securities backed by commercial properties because of the "threat of losing deals.''
The world's two largest bond-analysis providers repeatedly eased their standards as they pursued profits from structured investment pools sold by their clients, according to company documents, e-mails and interviews with more than 50 Wall Street professionals. It amounted to a "market-share war where criteria were relaxed,'' says former S&P Managing Director Richard Gugliada.

"I knew it was wrong at the time,'' says Gugliada, 46, who retired from the McGraw-Hill Cos. subsidiary in 2006 and was interviewed in May near his home in Staten Island, New York. "It was either that or skip the business. That wasn't my mandate. My mandate was to find a way. Find the way.''


Wall Street underwrote $3.2 trillion of loans to homebuyers with bad credit and undocumented incomes from 2002 to 2007. Investment banks packaged much of that debt into investment pools that won AAA ratings, the gold standard, from New York-based Moody's and S&P. Flawed grades on securities that later turned to junk now lie at the root of the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression, says economist Joseph Stiglitz.


'Would Have Stopped Flow':   "Without these AAA ratings, that would have stopped the flow of money,'' says Stiglitz, 65, a professor at Columbia University in New York who won the Nobel Prize in 2001 for his analysis of markets with asymmetric information. S&P and Moody's "were trying to please clients,'' he said. "You not only grade a company but tell it how to get the grade it wants.''
Go read the entire piece . . .
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The authors note the “domino-like” character to the financial crisis:
1. The bubble in home prices, fueled by the ready availability of credit, resulted in an underestimate of the risks of residential real estate;
2. The peaking of residential home prices in 2006, combined with lax lending standards were followed by a very high rate of delinquencies on subprime mortgages in 2007 and a rising rate of delinquencies on prime mortgages;
3. Losses thereafter on the complex “Collateralized Debt Obligations” (CDOs) that were backed by these mortgages;
4. Increased liabilities by the many financial institutions (banks, investment banks, insurance companies, and hedge funds) that issued “credit default swaps” contracts (CDS) that insured the CDOs;
5. Losses suffered by financial institutions that held CDOs and/or that issued CDS’s;
6. Cutbacks in credit extended by highly leveraged lenders that suffered these losses.Sure, that's an oversimplification. But it is a good place for the layperson to begin trying to comprehend what exactly went wrong here . . .
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附5.7000億美元紓困案焦點在主管報酬過高---
(9/27)【鉅亨網編譯郭照青.】這些華爾街主管想要從這7000億美元紓困計 劃分一杯羹,就得壓低他們的報酬。這波金融風暴中心的主管們恰巧就是報酬最高的 一群。已倒閉的雷曼兄弟銀 行執行長Richard Fuld去年也領了7190萬美元。過去五年間,Fuld坐領了3.54億美元,公司卻倒閉。其他倒閉企業的主管也不遑多讓。Bear Stearns銀 行前執行長過去二年,賺得了4931萬美元。今年春當Bear Stearns倒閉時,這位橋牌玩家還在忙著大賽橋 牌呢。前AIG執行長Martin J Sullivan過去三年,入袋了 3960萬美元。股東於6月迫使他下台時,離職金加紅利 仍高達1900萬美元。
這些 最高薪銀行主管幾乎拖垮了整體金融體系。..紓困的資金不應獎勵錯誤的決策。2007年,企業高層主管的報酬為平均員工的275倍, 而1989年僅為71倍。真正的問題不在於這些主管賺得多少,而在於公 司如何付給他們。大多企業係根據單季表現,提供報酬 ,因而引發了短期賭局。當賭贏了,這些主管立即豐收,但是若賭輸--如 最近金融危機,這些接受賭徒卻無需償還報酬。要改用長期績效決定報酬,並排拒風險性資產,最好方式就是將報酬分攤至數年期間。
(2010年3/29)--1年多前.金融海嘯谷底..我寫下篇文章--預言---
每當點石成金的米達斯王付出代價躺在地獄,無法作怪時,都是 長線投資人挑肥揀瘦布局時,這次也不例外.   米達斯王-投資銀行家與政客,從綠野仙蹤起(1899),就是一樣地貪婪,   闖禍後一樣由全民買 單;只要央行不斷灑錢滋潤,達米斯王會在人類貪婪的呼喚下,不斷輪廻復活重生,   米達斯王點石成金,  最後終要付出近摧毀性的代價..
這次瘋狂灑錢更徹底,利率達歷史低點,   過去要3~5年股市房市才能恢復的泡沫現象,這次不到一年就達到----新興市場許多國家的股市或房市(台灣與中國是房市),重新回到泡沫崩跌前的泡沫水準..
從下二圖-可看出..這次與過去歷史經驗大不同..去年就評析過-見歷史找不到可以參考經驗-....過去從末升段.初跌段 主跌段 末跌段 初升段主升段要用3~5年才達到的股市與房市...這次不到一年就通通完成.天下沒有白吃的午餐....一定要付出其他代價..(3/25)-噗友-sinopac-分享--**指數、匯率、利率、準備率走勢圖** --

台灣也開始恢復點石成金現象---張昭焚高喊碩禾股價看1800元,盤中創新高----肆無忌憚---點石成金--3/31-Dustinshares 碩合900..飆上墓碑參拜圖?碩合900
/噗友 morrischang5說..東森夢想街XX號.喊了冷門股--3055馬上起飆鎖漲停~~記得(1/9)他們狂報名牌時..散戶飛蛾撲火.修正一千五百點//吳揆點石成金--宣示雲端大聯盟前一星期前--雲端無關的雲端概念吹牛股狂飆...連飆股老板都出來喊投機太超過--3/24-wwschang說- 雲端股膨風 老闆也心驚 - 三月來資服股在雲端題材吹捧下股價漲翻天,連上市 公司老闆都看不下去,「哪有雲端業績,請不要再幫股友社吹捧!」//另外週刊媒體..近期跟年初一樣又是鼓吹散戶飛蛾撲火...
台灣與中國房市狂飆--政府在輿論壓力下--採用了推出抑制房市的三腳貓功夫,房產業反撲,.媒體置入行銷幫房產宣傳--絕對錯誤的謊言...例如---房地產是民間自由市場政府不該干預---3/27-擔心經濟盪下 吳揆抱歉:不能打壓房價-
這只證明---財團/房產業與坐擁豪宅等著炒泡沫的 黨政高官----這些掛勾體如預期的遊說成功...反正政客抱抱中國大腿..喊喊顏色...砍砍阿扁,    台灣中產階級就變成色盲.   放棄自己權益..泡沫前大家受害...泡沫破後來分攤損失...
5~8年前..台灣全體納稅人才分擔-----實值約1.5兆台幣.打掉台金融體系的前波房產泡沫壞帳.....//這次美國房產泡沫破..美國政 府也注入納稅人幾兆美元 去救金融體系房產爛帳..美國中產階級選歐巴馬把財團代理人共和黨趕下台......台灣中產階級.真健忘! 也真好騙!只好等著再被騙...
台灣在1990年泡沫崩潰前..房市漲3~4倍.把未來20年漲幅漲光..房價工資太高..台灣勞力密集產業(鞋/玩具/雨傘.)從此畢業..展開售台房產換資金20年大出走潮..台房市房價20年內區間內沉.這故事我寫這篇文章重建賭博共和國中 ROC- 如果中國與台灣--那批政客又打算,把台灣與中國的房市未來10年漲幅,1~2年內漲光--那會陷入決策最大風險--游資大泡沫風險使台灣(與中國)永失 去關鍵競爭力...然後再如台灣前幾年與眼前歐巴馬, 用全體納稅人出錢來買單.房地產絕不是民間自由市場--政府如不干預--最後大家倒霉...全體買單...胡錦濤溫家寶馬彭吳..如沒處理好,將成布希第 二,臭名千年,留照汗青.
(4/2)-中線反向思考-08年冒險基金爆掉大部分-.信報-.09年全球25位薪金最高的對沖基金經理,在去年分享的花紅達253.3億美元, 是08年2倍,也超過07年 歷史紀錄223 億美元。(II AR+ Alpha報告-去年有7位冒險基金經理收取逾10億美元紅利)...David Tepper-Appaloosa Mgt去年回報逾130%,紅利達40億美元。他超越「賺錢之神」John Paulson,成為最賺錢冒險基金經理。保爾森排名第四,紅利23億美元。索羅斯去年居次賺33億美元。James Simons排第三,賺25億美元。

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